SUMMARY

Intermediate-term earthquake prediction in Việt Nam

Cao Đình Triều, Panza G.F., Cao Đình Trọng, Phạm Nam Hưng

In this paper the authors present some new results about the use of CN, M8, and M8S algorithms for intermediate-term earthquake prediction in Việt Nam. The following conclusions can be made:

1. From 1964 to 2002, in the “Extended West Bắc Bộ region” there were 4 earthquakes with M ≥ 5.5 (1966, 1972, 1983, and 1989), among them 3 have been recognized with Mc = 3.0 and 3.4. The earthquake with M = 6.2 in 3/10/2003 in the coordinates of 21.27 N; 101.51 E has been forecasted by using the CN algorithm.

2. A warning on seismic risk with Ms ≥ 5.5 in 2008 has been set forth for the “Extended West Bắc Bộ region” based on the List of earthquakes in from 1964 to 2005 by using the CN algorithm.

3. The extended algorithms M8 and M8S are the ones that can be effectively used for earthquake prediction in Việt Nam. The Tuần Giáo M6.7 earthquake (24/6/1983) was predicted on the basis of earthquake events posessed to the end of 1980 with the duration of TIP's from 1981 to 1986.

4. During the time of from 2009 to 2013, the danger of earthquake of M6.5+ occurrence in the region of West Bắc Bộ: Lai Châu, Điện Biên, Sơn La, Lào Cai, Yên Bái provinces and south of Yunnan (China) can be the danger of earthquake occurrence; this is based on the M8S algorithm.

Ngày nhận bài: 10/9/2009

Người biên tập: TSKH. Ngô Thị Lư

(Viện Vật lý Địa cầu, Viện KH&CN Việt Nam).