SUMMARY

Primary results of earthquake prediction in Southeast Asia and North Việt Nam
on the basis of Algorithms M8 and M8S

                                                           Cao Đình Triều, Mai Xuân Bách, Cao Đình Trọng

In this paper the authors present the primary results of earthquake prediction in Southeast Asia and North Việt Nam based on M8 and M8S algorithms. The following conclusions can be made: 

1) The algorithm M8 can be effectively used for earthquake prediction with the M7.0+ in Southeast Asia: the great Sumatra earthquake M9.0 (26/12/2004) was predicted on the basis of the earthquake catalogue to the end of 2003 (R = 667 km and R = 3000 km); the Java earthquake  M7.7 (17/7/2006) was predicted on the basis of earthquake events to the end of 2005 (R = 281 km); and the South Taiwan M7,1 (26/12/2006) was also predicted on the basis of events to the end of 2005.

2) The extended algorithm M8S can be effectively used for earthquake prediction in Việt Nam: the Tuần Giáo earthquake M6.7 (24/6/1983) was predicted on the basis of earthquake events to the end of 1980, with the duration of TIP's from 1981 to 1986.

3) During the time from 2006 to 2010, the danger of earthquake M6.5+ can occur in the areas of Northwest Lao and North Hà Giang Province.

Ngày nhận bài: 9/1/2007

Người biên tập: Nguyễn Đình Xuyên